Sea level rise

In a historical moment of hurricanes, flooding, and unprecedented weather events, it is becoming increasingly clear that climate change is neither imagined nor distant—and that it is changing the coastline of the United States in irrevocable ways.

In Rising, Elizabeth Rush guides readers through our nation’s disappearing places, from Louisiana to Miami, Staten Island to the Bay Area. The wetlands that define these regions are among the most imperiled ecosystems on the planet—accustomed to periods of change, of ebb and flow, yet overwhelmed by rapidly shifting conditions. For many of the plants and animals who live there, the options are stark: retreat or perish in place.

Is human civilization facing a similar set of limited options? And how do we move forward in a world whose borders are already becoming unsettled and strange? Weaving the firsthand accounts of those who are living through sea level rise today—scientists, activists, and members of the communities both currently at risk and already displaced—with eyewitness reporting from our shoreline’s disappearing places, Rising is at once polyphonic and precise, lyric reportage that privileges the voices of those usually kept at the margins.

A shimmering meditation on vulnerability and on vulnerable communities, both human and more than human, and on how to let go of the places we love.

https://milkweed.org/book/rising

The likely health effects of climate change make it one of the most pressing global public health issues of our time. Effects range from more intense and frequent cyclones, flooding, and heat waves through to changing infectious disease patterns, food and water insecurity, sea-level rise, and economic and social disruption. The governments of almost all developed nations are now focusing their attention on national policy responses to the threat of climate change. In New Zealand, it is currently unclear what path our current government will take to contribute to the global response and fulfil our Kyoto obligations. In this paper we discuss the main carbon pricing options currently under consideration, and their implications for health and health inequities in New Zealand. We summarise the literature about the likely health and equity implications of different kinds of carbon pricing policy. A health sector voice in these significant policy decisions is vital to ensuring a policy tha...

The scientific literature has documented the growing risks of flooding posed for Asia’s coastal cities by the combination of climate change, as reflected in sea level rise and intensified storms and storm surges, and ongoing urban growth in low-lying coastal zones. These issues were already elaborated in the 2007 IPCC (IPCC, 2007) reports but recent studies indicate that climate change, sea level rise and the sinking of the deltas on which most Asian mega urban regions have arisen, are all occurring at much faster rates than earlier projected and therefore pose even greater risks than previously indicated. Global warming appears to be accelerating and may increase to 4° C or more by the end of this century, twice the earlier IPCC projections. The sea level is now expected to rise by one meter or more by 2100; two or three times the earlier projections. The recent typhoons and rains striking Southeast Asia have been the most intense in decades as would be expected as a result of glob...

L’innalzamento del livello dei mari è un pericolo reale e a breve termine: le amministrazioni e le comunità costiere dovranno considerare seriamente di agire con scelte immediate, non solo per conto delle generazioni future, ma anche per sé stesse. Il nostro litorale mostra una fragilità estrema a causa della forte urbanizzazione presente già a una decina di metri dalla linea di riva e, più in generale, alle oggettive criticità rilevabili  dagli aspetti fisiografici del nostro territorio. A queste problematiche già esistenti va ora aggiunta l'emergenza climatica, con una delle sue conseguenze più immediate: l'innalzamento del livello del mare.

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.

Historical records of sand drift and dune-building along the coastline of Western Europe provide insights into the natural processes of sand dune accretion and both the impacts of, and human responses to, sand incursions. The analysis of documentary records, instrumental data and proxy records over the last 1,000 years indicates that this period, which included the Little Ice Age (AD 1570–1900), featured numerous episodes of sand drift and dune development driven by strong winds associated with Atlantic storms. It is estimated that sand drift affected over a quarter of a million hectares of coastal land in Western Europe. The widespread use of vegetation to stabilise coastal dune systems and prevent sand drift is documented across Europe from AD 1100 and by the start of the 20th century all of the larger coastal dune systems in Portugal, France, Britain and Denmark were comparatively inactive. Given that Atlantic storminess has remained more or less unchanged over the last 200 years, modern dune management strategies which consider dune devegetation, driven by an increasing focus on ‘naturalness’, may give rise to a recurrence of sand drift problems. Predictions of increased storm frequencies by the end of the 21st century, coupled with sea level rise and potential changes in sand supply will present further challenges for the more ‘dynamic’ dune management strategies.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is considered to be important for barrier behaviour when barriers are swash-aligned and single-crested, which is typical of only one part of a barrier's lifeterm. Under such conditions gravel-barrier retreat rate correlates with mesoscale (sub-decadal: <101 a) SLR rate. Barrier crest overwashing, depending on surge frequency/magnitude, is recognized as the dynamic element that controls barrier retreat rate. Surge characterization of the Halifax tide gauge (using an annual forcing coefficient derived from tide gauge surge residuals) is shown to have high correlation with Story Head (Nova Scotia) barrier retreat rate between 1945 and 1987. Barrier response appears to vary as a function of mesoscale (sub-decadal) SLR and antecedent barrier conditions in combination with the forcing coefficient. Mesoscale (100 a–102 a) rather than macroscale (> 102 a) SLR rate is the critical control on barrier retreat, as mesoscale SLR variation in combination with surge ...

We predict the decadal change in position of three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic information system, tide gauge data, and projections for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface. Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem boundaries, including in response to projected relative sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption and cost of reducing threats to coastal development and human safety. The observed mean landward migration of three mangroves' seaward margins over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to 37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove area, where there was a highly significant correlation between the change in position of the seaward mangrove margin and change in relative sea-level. Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration. Shoreline movement was variable at a third site and not significantly correlated with changing sea-level, where it is likely that forces other than change in relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%, 23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves' landward margins are obstructed by coastal development from natural landward migration. The three mangroves could experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands region.

Well-exposed, ancient rocky shores are rare and the associated shelly faunas are normally strongly worn and fragmented due to erosion during both sea-level rise and fall. An early Campanian rocky shore with a rich fauna is preserved at Ivö Klack in the Kristianstad Basin, southern Sweden. Ivö Klack is situated on the small, hilly island of Ivö situated in lake Ivösjön with a lake level about 6 m above present-day sea level. The rocky shore was formed during a major late early Campanian transgression caused by a sea-level rise up to about 100 m above present sea level. An archipelago was formed along the northern basin margin during the transgression with numerous small islands and peninsulas. The steep palaeo-coast at Ivö Klack consists of gneiss overlain in the lower part by more than 30 m of kaolin in places containing large boulders of gneiss with a kaolinized outer crust. The kaolin wedges out upslope and is absent above 30–35 m above lake level. The kaolin is overlain by up to 5 m of muddy quartz sand with highly angular grains, representing a residue of the kaolin formed during transgressive wave and current reworking. The steep gneiss coast was rapidly transgressed by the sea in the latest early Campanian and at least 25 m of onlapping coarse-grained skeletal sand, gravel and whole fossils were deposited on the clean gneiss surface during the Belemnellocamax mammilatus belemnite biozone. Large boulders of gneiss are common in the carbonates and formed distinct boulder beds at some levels but these are now quarried away. The top 6 m of the preserved carbonate succession are free of boulders. The rocky surface is fairly even on a large scale, but highly irregular in detail with numerous metre-sized hummocks and boulders formed during terrestrial weathering and kaolinization. The lowest part of the shore is developed as a bench, topped by a sub-horizontal irregular platform, 20–30 m wide, with large hummocks and rounded boulders. The platform passes upwards into a steep boulder-strewn slope. A well-developed glauconitized hardground with Thalassinoides burrows and several incipient hardgrounds occur in the carbonates draping the bench and lower part of the platform. They dip gently outwards and probably represent a kind of beach rock. A highly diverse benthic fauna with more than 200 shell-bearing species lived between, below and on the hummocks and boulders. It comprises bivalves, brachiopods, polychaetes, gastropods, echinoids, asteroids, bryozoans and is dominated by large oysters and includes the northernmost Late Cretaceous rudists and hermatypic corals. The remaining benthic invertebrate groups are represented by only a few species each. The non-benthic invertebrate fauna comprises four belemnite species and one rare ammonite species. The lower Campanian carbonates of the small basin have yielded an unusually diverse vertebrate fauna totalling more than 60 species, including mosasaurs, plesiosaurs, crocodiles, turtles, birds, and as many as 44 species of sharks and rays. Ivö Klack thus provides information on virtually all trophic levels in the rocky shore ecosystem and represents the most diverse rocky shore fauna known from the geological record. This paper aims at providing the framework for a series of papers on the palaeoecology of the main benthic faunal groups.

People from Kiribati, especially after obtaining college degrees, tend to have a desire to migrate abroad to obtain further education and good jobs and, to some extent , due to the impacts of climate change. Nineteen percent of I-Kiribati migrants in Fiji who responded to our survey indicated climate change as a factor for their migration, but their primary reasons were to seek better education and employment. When seeking employment, their lack of English-language skills and professional qualifications posed challenges. However , those who had prepared well in advance tend to find jobs relatively smoothly after migration. When settling in a new area, people tended to rely on family connections, community groups, and other social supports as sources of network and safety net.

Relative changes in Holocene sea level are reconstructed from foraminiferal assemblages in seven cores recovered from the intertidal zone of North Norfolk (Eastern England). A total of 33 radiocarbon and infra-red stimulated luminescence dates provide a detailed chronological framework for these changes. A transfer function approach, developed from modern UK foraminiferal datasets, establishes a series of 21 new sea-level index

Coastal development is spreading along the World's coasts. Sea levels are rising, so major future asset losses are expected. Planned retreat from the sea behind natural ecological defences is one adaptation option. To maintain it, land could be set aside for colonisation by coastal ecosystems, or buildings constructed on condition they are removed when sea level reaches a specified distance from the building.

Similarities among coastal issues in high-income countries encouraged us to produce a generalisable analytical framework for exploring planned retreat. We applied it to South East Queensland, Australia, where the option of planned retreat is disappearing because (1) State Government promotes population increase; (2) the need to provide places for naturally protective coastal ecosystems to occupy does not seem urgent, so houses are built there; (3) liability laws favour development; (4) planning ignores cumulative impacts, the path dependent nature of development and irreversible social–ecological threshold changes; (5) political pressure to build defences grows as the value of built assets increases.

To implement planned retreat, changes to coastal governance would be needed, for which we propose five guiding principles: (a) allocate authority and resources between levels of governance according to their effectiveness at each level; (b) strengthen development rules and incentives to relocate as an unwanted threshold is approached; (c) allow for uncertainties by enabling rules and incentives to be changed when circumstances change; (d) reassign public and private benefits, costs, risks, uncertainties and responsibilities from governments to beneficiaries of development; (e) institutionalise catastrophes as opportunities for change, not signals to rebuild.

Following from this research, one of our next the priorities is the psychology of social change, uncertainty, rights, obligations, incentives and trust. The other is to extend and deepen understanding of the responses of developers, bankers, insurers, house buyers, sellers and owners to changes in development rules and incentives.